Weekly Car Market Overview (July 1-7, 2024)

1. Overview of the Car Market This Week

Passenger Cars: From July 1-7, the retail sales of passenger cars reached 274,000 units, a 6% increase compared to the same period last year, and a 9% increase compared to the previous month. The cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year have reached 10,114,000 units, a 3% increase year-on-year. From July 1-7, the wholesale of passenger car manufacturers nationwide was 195,000 units, a 26% decrease compared to the same period last year, and a 21% decrease compared to the previous month. The cumulative wholesale since the beginning of the year has reached 11,947,000 units, a 5% increase year-on-year.

New Energy: From July 1-7, the new energy passenger car market retail sales reached 130,000 units, a 37% increase compared to the same period last year, and a 3% increase compared to the previous month. The cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year have reached 4,243,000 units, a 33% increase year-on-year. From July 1-7, the new energy wholesale of passenger car manufacturers nationwide was 111,000 units, a 24% increase compared to the same period last year, and a 20% decrease compared to the previous month. The cumulative wholesale since the beginning of the year has reached 4,731,000 units, a 30% increase year-on-year.

2. A Steady Start for National Passenger Car Market Retail in July 2024

During the first week of July, the daily retail sales of passenger cars averaged 39,000 units, a 6% increase compared to the same period last year, and a 9% increase compared to the previous month.

From July 1-7, the passenger car market retail sales reached 274,000 units, a 6% increase compared to the same period last year, and a 9% increase compared to the previous month. The cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year have reached 10,114,000 units, a 3% increase year-on-year.

Summer car market off-season is not as off as it used to be, with the retail sales in July from 2014 to 2019 accounting for an average of 6.9% of the total annual volume, while from 2020 to 2023, the average was 8.4% of the total annual volume, with 2023 reaching a higher proportion of 8.8%. As the private car popularity and the rapid growth of smart electric vehicles, car owners have a high enthusiasm for low-cost travel and entertainment, and the car purchase demand driven by the private car scrap renewal subsidy policy continues to accelerate, making car purchase and replacement a good choice for some families, which is conducive to the release of residents' consumption potential.

3. Weak Start for National Passenger Car Manufacturer Sales in July 2024

During the first week of July, the average daily wholesale was 28,000 units, a 26% decrease compared to the same period last year, and a 21% decrease compared to the previous month.

From July 1-7, the nationwide passenger car manufacturer wholesale was 195,000 units, a 26% decrease compared to the same period last year, and a 21% decrease compared to the previous month. The cumulative wholesale since the beginning of the year has reached 11,947,000 units, a 5% increase year-on-year.

There are 23 working days in July this year, two more than the 21 working days last year, which is conducive to the stable sales and production trend in July. With the structural differentiation of the car market growth, some companies have abundant capacity for traditional fuel vehicles, and the inventory reduction is obvious under the pressure of the shrinking fuel vehicle market. The wholesale trend of the car market at the beginning of July is weak.

The strong promotions in the first half of the year have disrupted the normal price trend of the car market, and the terminal price needs some time to adapt. In addition, the strong promotional strength in the second quarter has a consumption overdraft effect on the car purchase customers in the second half of the year, and the effect of exchanging volume for price in July may be weakened. Car companies, combined with the results of the first half of the year, will also optimize and adjust the market expectations, product structure, and listing rhythm, and may enter a period of accumulation.

4. China's Share of the World's Automobile Market Reached 33% in May 2024

In May 2024, the global car sales reached 7.27 million units, a 1% decrease compared to the same period last year, and a 4% increase compared to the previous month. In May 2024, it is still 10% lower than the peak in May 2018, at a mid-level in previous years. From January to May 2024, the sales volume was 35.66 million units, a 3% increase year-on-year. In May 2024, the share of Chinese car companies in the world was 33%.

From a global perspective, the Chinese car market has shown a strong recovery in 2024, with BYD, Geely Automobile, Changan Automobile, and other Chinese car companies showing the most prominent recovery effects, while the performance of Asian groups represented by Toyota and Kia is still poor. The international chip shortage in the past two years has had a relatively small impact on the Chinese car market, but has instead promoted the strong performance of Chinese car exports, seizing huge international market supply and demand gaps, and obtaining a rare development opportunity. As a highly monopolized industry such as automotive chips, this supply-side tightening will bring significant opportunities for the rise of China's supply chain, and the recent rapid development of new energy, with Chinese independent car companies showing a strong trend.

5. China's Share of the World's New Energy Vehicle Market Reached 64% from January to May 2024

From January to May 2024, the global car sales reached 35.66 million units, with new energy vehicles reaching 5.85 million units. The share of new energy vehicles from January to May 2024 reached 16.4%, of which pure electric vehicles accounted for 10.8%, plug-in hybrids reached 5.6% of the car proportion, and hybrid power accounted for 6.3%, and the proportion of oil-electric hybrid has increased.

In May 2024, the global sales of new energy passenger cars reached 1.32 million units, a 20% increase year-on-year, and an 11% increase month-on-month. From January to May, the global sales of new energy passenger cars reached 5.67 million units, a 21% increase year-on-year. This year, the new energy passenger car sales in Europe from January to May reached 1.1 million units, with a growth rate of 3%, and the new energy passenger car sales in North America reached 670,000 units, with a growth rate of 12%. Against the backdrop of increased fuel car supply, the performance of new energy in Europe and America is average. Because the growth of new energy in Europe and America has slowed down, the